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Easy · Probability & Combinatorics · Numerical · ~5 min · #6

Positive Test, Rare Condition

A condition affects 1% of a population. A screening test has a 99% true-positive rate (sensitivity) and a 5% false-positive rate. A randomly selected person tests positive.

What is the probability that they actually have the condition?

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Bayes' theoremBase-rate neglect

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