Medium · Probability & Combinatorics · Numerical · ~6 min · #5
Monty Hall with Four Doors
A prize is behind one of four doors, uniformly at random. You pick door 1. The host, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the other three doors that does not hide the prize (choosing uniformly if there are several such doors). You then switch to one of the two remaining unopened doors, chosen uniformly at random.
What is your probability of winning?
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Law of total probabilityMonty Hall
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