Three-Dice Market

Three fair six-sided dice are rolled face down. You make a market on their sum. Before each of the three rounds, one more die is turned over (none in the first round). Settles at the true sum.

Scoring rules

Each round you enter a fair value, a bid and an ask (ask − bid ≤ 2). Then the round's counterparties arrive in a fixed, seeded order:

8 noise traders, each with a random edge between 0 and 2.5. A noise buyer lifts your ask if ask ≤ public EV + edge; a noise seller hits your bid if bid ≥ public EV − edge. Size 1.
One informed trader who knows the true value: buys 2 at your ask if ask < true value, or sells at your bid if bid > true value.
Fills that would take |position| above 10 are rejected.

After the last round the position settles at the true value.

Score = PnL − 0.1 × Σ|position after each round| − 0.5 × Σ|fair value − public EV|

PnL = spread edge (earned versus the public EV) + information PnL (position × (true − EV) at each fill). Target score ≥ 0. The same seed and the same quotes always produce the same result; the final score is recomputed on the server.

Seed 1Round 1 of 3

0 of 3 revealed

Position

Cash

Mark @ EV

Max width